The Green Post Ireland
Scotland face Tonga in the final Quilter Nations Series Test at Scottish Gas Murrayfield in Edinburgh on Sunday 23 November 2025, with kick-off at 13:40 UK time. The hosts arrive off a bruising November run against USA, New Zealand and Argentina, while Tonga come in buoyed by a strong Pacific Nations Cup campaign that ended with a third-place finish. Recent head-to-head meetings have been one-sided in Scotland’s favour, including a 45–17 win at the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
Team Form & Recent Results
Scotland Recent Form
Scotland’s 2025 Autumn Nations Series has been a rollercoaster. They opened with an emphatic demolition of the USA, running in a huge score and underlining the gulf in class against Tier 2 opposition.
Momentum then stalled. A spirited but ultimately frustrating performance against New Zealand saw Scotland come from 17–0 down to level at 17–17, only to fade late and lose 25–17 at Murrayfield. A week later, they let a 21–0 lead slip in a painful defeat to Argentina, showing both their attacking potential and their game-management flaws.
Despite these setbacks, the broader trend is clear:
- Scotland routinely put big scores on lower-ranked nations, especially at home.
- Against Tier 2 teams since 2022, they’ve racked up heavy wins, including comfortable margins over USA, Samoa and Tonga themselves at the 2023 World Cup.
This fixture represents a chance to end the series on a high and reset confidence before the 2026 Six Nations.
Tonga Recent Form
Tonga arrive from a positive Pacific Nations Cup campaign in which they beat Canada 35–24 in the bronze final, guided by 25 points from playmaker Patrick Pellegrini. They showed attacking variety and resilience, scoring freely but still leaking points defensively.
Recent trends for Tonga:
- Qualified for the 2027 Rugby World Cup via the PNC, underlining their status as a strong Tier 2 side.
- Strong in spurts but inconsistent over 80 minutes, particularly away from home.
- Struggle to close out games against top-10 nations, often fading in the final quarter as depth and conditioning tell.
Head-to-Head Record
Scotland and Tonga have met several times in recent years, and the numbers heavily favour the hosts:
- Scotland 45–17 Tonga – Rugby World Cup 2023, Pool B (Nice): seven Scottish tries to two, showcasing the class gap in attack and defence.
- Scotland 37–12 Tonga – 2014 Test at Kilmarnock, another comfortable home win.
From the last two meetings alone:
- Average score: Scotland 41 – 15 Tonga
- Both games won by Scotland by 25+ points, with a dominant try count.
Recent rankings and form against Tier 2 opposition suggest that Scotland remain clear favourites, especially on home soil.
Lineups, Injuries & Squad News
Scotland Team News & Expected XV
Gregor Townsend has opted for a much-changed side after the Argentina defeat, using this Tonga clash to freshen the squad while still fielding a strong core. Only captain Sione Tuipulotu keeps his starting place from last week, with several British & Irish Lions recalled.
Key updates:
- Fergus Burke starts at fly-half for just his second cap, replacing Finn Russell, who returns from injury but is managed carefully.
- Tom Jordan comes in at fullback, adding a second distributor and kicking option from deep.
- Duhan van der Merwe returns on the wing, bringing elite finishing and meters gained out wide.
- Ben White is back at scrum-half after illness, restoring a familiar hinge at 9.
- In the pack, Zander Fagerson and Rory Sutherland are set to start at prop after injury lay-offs, while hooker George Turner earns his 50th cap.
You can expect a typical Scottish structure:
- Forwards: powerful front row, athletic locks, and a back-row blend of Jamie Ritchie’s work-rate and Andy Onyeama-Christie’s physicality.
- Backs: dual playmakers (Burke and Tuipulotu), with pace and power out wide in van der Merwe and the opposite wing.
Even with rotation, this is still close to a Test-strength lineup against a Tier 2 opponent.
Tonga Team News & Expected XV
Head coach Tevita Tuʻifua continues to mould his side with an eye on the 2027 World Cup, blending locally based players with Europe- and Super Rugby–based talent.
Recent squad themes:
- Patrick Pellegrini likely starts at fly-half after his 25-point haul against Canada in the Pacific Nations Cup bronze final.
- Captain Ben Tameifuna anchors the scrum at tighthead, bringing huge power at set-piece and in carries.
- Expect a traditional Tongan backline with strong ball-carrying centres and wingers like Fine Inisi capable of breaking tackles and punishing broken-field turnover ball.
Tonga’s matchday 23 is likely to be heavy and confrontational up front but with less depth than Scotland on the bench.
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
This Scotland vs Tonga betting preview hinges on two key tactical themes: tempo and discipline.
Scotland
- Expect Scotland to play a high-tempo, multi-phase game, using Burke and Jordan as dual kick–pass threats to stretch Tonga’s defence.
- The hosts will look to dominate territory through contestable kicks, then apply pressure via lineouts in the Tongan half.
- With van der Merwe back, Scotland have elite finishing out wide, while Tuipulotu’s direct running can punch holes in midfield.
- Defensively, their recent issues have centred on lapses in concentration and penalty counts late in games, something Townsend will demand they tidy up after blowing leads against Argentina and New Zealand.
Tonga
- Tonga’s best route into the contest is via collision dominance and set-pieces, especially scrums anchored by Tameifuna.
- Pellegrini’s tactical kicking and goal-kicking are crucial; Tonga will want to keep the scoreboard moving whenever they enter Scotland’s 22.
- Expect plenty of direct carries off 9 and 10, with midfield runners targeting Scotland’s fringes, hoping to generate quick ball and offload opportunities.
However, over 80 minutes, Scotland’s fitness, depth and bench quality should tell. Tonga’s recent tests show they can score, but they often concede heavily in the final quarter as defensive structures unravel.
Odds, Markets & Betting Tips
Most bookmakers are likely to frame this as a one-sided handicap market with Scotland heavily odds-on to win, given:
- Their record of big victories over Tier 2 nations at Murrayfield.
- Recent H2H margins against Tonga (25+ points in each of the last two meetings).
- Tonga’s poor away record against top-tier opposition and tendency to concede late points.
Key betting angles to consider:
- Handicap (Scotland -): Scotland have regularly cleared big handicaps versus Tier 2 sides; a line in the mid-30s to low-40s would still be realistic based on recent results.
- Total Points (Over/Under): Tonga usually contribute some scoring, but most of the total will likely come from Scotland. An over on Scotland team points is often safer than match total overs.
- Winning Margin: Bands such as Scotland by 31–40 or 41+ points will be attractive for those targeting bigger prices.
Always check up-to-date odds with licensed bookmakers before betting.
Where to Watch Online & Kickoff Time
- Date: Sunday 23 November 2025
- Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh, Scotland
- Kickoff: 13:40 (UK & Ireland), 14:40 CET, 01:40 NZDT (Mon) approx.
- TV Broadcast (UK): Live on TNT Sports, with streaming via Discovery+ for subscribers.
For global viewers, check local broadcasters or World Rugby’s listings for international streaming options.
Prediction: Scotland vs Tonga, Autumn Nations Series 2025
Scotland will be desperate to finish their Autumn Nations Series with a statement performance, and this fixture against a brave but limited Tonga side offers exactly that platform. Townsend has refreshed his XV but kept enough star power to ensure they can maintain tempo, dominate territory and turn pressure into points. Tonga’s physicality and Pellegrini’s boot should keep them competitive in patches, yet the step up from Pacific Nations Cup opposition to a top-tier side at Murrayfield is significant.
Across recent Tier 2 matchups and head-to-head history, Scotland have consistently pulled away in the second half, and this game looks primed to follow that familiar pattern.
- Final Prediction: Scotland 48–13 Tonga
- Best Bet: Scotland to cover a large handicap (around Scotland -32.5 or lower if available)
- Alternative Value: Scotland to win both halves and Scotland over 38.5 team points
