The Green Post Ireland
Ireland host Japan at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin for their second fixture of the 2025 Autumn Nations Series, looking to bounce back after last weekend’s defeat to New Zealand.
Andy Farrell’s men sit comfortably inside the world’s top five and have won nine of their last eleven Tests, showing they remain one of rugby’s most consistent sides. Japan, meanwhile, come into this game low on confidence after a string of heavy defeats, including a 61–7 thrashing by South Africa.
The Brave Blossoms haven’t beaten Ireland since their famous 2019 World Cup upset, and recent meetings have been one-sided. Ireland dominated their last encounter, running out 60–5 winners. With both teams heading in very different directions, the Irish are firm favourites heading into Saturday’s clash.
Team Form & Recent Results
Ireland:
Ireland’s form remains strong despite their Chicago setback against the All Blacks. That 26–13 loss came after Tadhg Beirne’s early red card left them a man short for most of the game. Prior to that, they had cruised through summer fixtures — smashing Portugal 106–7 and Georgia 34–5. Andy Farrell’s squad continues to blend youth and experience effectively, and the core group that won the 2024 Six Nations remains intact.
- Last 5 matches: W4, L1
- Points scored: 202 | Points conceded: 60
- Key wins: Portugal (106–7), Georgia (34–5), Italy (22–17)
Japan:
Japan’s campaign has spiraled since their Pacific Nations Cup semifinal victory over Tonga. They’ve since lost three consecutive Tests, conceding 61 points against South Africa and struggling to compete physically with tier-one nations. Their attack, once fluid and unpredictable, has looked blunt, while their defence has leaked 240 points in six games.
- Last 5 matches: W2, L3
- Points scored: 128 | Points conceded: 205
- Key wins: Canada (57–15), USA (47–21)
Head-to-Head Record
Ireland have won four of their last five meetings with Japan. Their only loss came in the 2019 Rugby World Cup group stage (19–12). Since then, Ireland have averaged over 45 points per game against the Brave Blossoms, including a 60–5 rout in their most recent clash.
Last 5 H2H Results:
- 2025: Ireland 60–5 Japan
- 2023: Ireland 39–9 Japan
- 2021: Ireland 60–5 Japan
- 2019: Japan 19–12 Ireland
- 2017: Ireland 50–22 Japan
Lineups, Injuries & Team News
Ireland (Expected):
Farrell has hinted at changes after the red card setback in Chicago. Finlay Bealham and Tadhg Furlong are expected to anchor the front row, with Caelan Doris and Josh van der Flier leading the breakdown battle. Jamison Gibson-Park returns at scrum-half, while Jack Crowley is likely to start at fly-half. Hugo Keenan and James Lowe provide the finishing power out wide.
Unavailable: Tadhg Beirne (suspension), Mack Hansen (hamstring).
Japan (Expected):
Eddie Jones has rotated heavily, with Lomano Lemeki set to start at full-back and veteran Shota Horie returning at hooker. Michael Leitch remains a key figure in the pack, though Japan’s forwards struggled against South Africa’s power. Expect them to rely on quick offloads and tempo through the backs.
Unavailable: Kazuki Himeno (ankle), Kotaro Matsushima (rested).
Tactical Analysis & Key Players
Ireland’s blueprint remains rooted in controlled aggression and precise execution. Expect them to dominate possession — targeting over 60% territory — and break Japan down through sustained phases. Jack Crowley’s game management will be key, while Hugo Keenan’s kick returns could expose Japan’s weak backfield coverage.
Japan will look to move the ball wide early, avoiding contact-heavy exchanges. If their offload game clicks, they could find space in transition, but their defence around the ruck remains a major concern against Ireland’s powerful carriers.
Key Players:
- Ireland: Josh van der Flier, Jack Crowley, Hugo Keenan
- Japan: Michael Leitch, Shota Horie, Siosaia Fifita
Odds, Markets & Betting Tips
- Ireland to Win: 1.01
- Japan to Win: 26.00
- Draw: 51.00
- Handicap: Ireland −35.5 (1.85)
- Total Points Over 58.5: 1.90
- Both Teams to Score 10+ Points: 2.25
Best Bets:
- Ireland −35.5 Handicap
- Ireland to Win & Over 58.5 Points
- James Lowe Anytime Try Scorer
Where to Watch Online & Kickoff Time
- Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
- Kickoff: Saturday, November 8, 2025 – 17:30 GMT
- Broadcast: Virgin Media (Ireland), Sky Sports (UK), Stan Sport (AUS)
Prediction: Ireland vs Japan, Autumn Nations Series
Ireland are expected to respond emphatically after their loss to New Zealand. Their superior structure, power, and depth should overwhelm a Japanese side still rebuilding under Eddie Jones. Japan’s spirited attack may offer moments of resistance, but Ireland’s precision and physical dominance should see them pull away comfortably.
Final Prediction: Ireland 52–10 Japan
Best Bet: Ireland −35.5 Handicap
Alternative Value: Ireland to Win & Over 58.5 Total Points
