The Green Post Ireland
Ethereum has staged a notable recovery, breaking out of a bullish reversal pattern just as exchange-held token reserves fall to their lowest levels in years. After sliding for nearly two consecutive weeks — plunging from $3,633 on Nov. 10 to a monthly low of $2,680 on Nov. 21 — ETH has climbed back above the critical $3,000 threshold. Analysts view this level as essential for shifting the broader trend from bearish back to bullish.
At around $3,013, Ethereum has gained 7.3% over the past week, though it remains nearly 40% below its August all-time high. The latest price surge is being powered by three major catalysts reshaping market expectations.
Exchange reserves drop sharply, Fusaka upgrade nears, and ETF inflows return
The first driver is Ethereum’s rapidly declining exchange supply. Data from CryptoQuant shows that reserves have fallen from 20.9 million ETH in July to 16.8 million, meaning fewer tokens are available for immediate sale. Shrinking exchange balances generally reduce selling pressure and often set the stage for upward momentum.
Hype surrounding the upcoming Fusaka upgrade, expected around Dec. 3, is also fueling investor optimism. The update is anticipated to be Ethereum’s most significant advancement since The Merge, focusing on improving data availability for rollups — a key bottleneck in scaling the network.
A third major catalyst comes from the ETF market. After three weeks of heavy outflows totaling $1.7 billion, U.S. spot Ether ETFs have seen a dramatic turnaround, recording $236 million in net inflows this week. Renewed institutional demand is further reinforcing confidence that ETH may be entering a more constructive phase.
Institutional accumulation from firms such as Bitmine has also added support, signalling deep-pocketed investors are positioning for long-term upside.
Technical outlook: ETH breaks falling wedge, eyes major resistance at $3,096
On the daily chart, Ethereum has cleanly broken out of a falling wedge, a bullish chart pattern characterized by converging downward-sloping trendlines with lower highs and lower lows. A breakout from this structure often marks the early stages of a trend reversal.
The next major test is the 200-day moving average at $3,096, which has repeatedly capped ETH’s upward moves since early November. A strong breakout above this level could open the door toward $3,600, a region closely aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level — a zone often watched by traders for confirmation of sustained trend changes.
However, Ethereum’s newfound momentum remains fragile. If the price fails to hold $3,000, analysts warn a downside move toward $2,750 is possible, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and serves as the next meaningful support area.
With supply tightening, technicals improving and institutional demand resurfacing, Ethereum is now positioned at a critical inflection point — one that could define its trajectory heading into the next market cycle.
